Almost one year of conflict in Middle East: Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah and the fear of escalation

Triggered by the October 7th attacks from Hamas against Israel, the conflict in Gaza completes one year amidst civilian massacre, hostages still in the posession of Hamas, protests in Israel and genocide accusations in the International Court of Justice. However, the main take from the conflict so far is the risk of escalation with tensions going up in the Middle East.

The October 7th attacks

On October 7th, Israel was surprised with an unprecedented terrorist attack from Hamas. The Islamic Resistance Group was not only able to penetrate the Israeli frontier that was considered hermetically closed, but was able to invade, assassinate and kidnap inhabitants of the kibbutzim near the frontier. In addition, the group conducted another missile attack against Israel that achieved overwhelming the Iron Dome, the Israeli missile defense system. Israel amounted 1,200 dead, which was a significant hit for the country.

Later on, newspapers all over the world announced that Israeli Intelligence provided the government with information that the attacks would occur. Other Intelligence services from the US and Egypt also warned Israel, CNN and BBC reported. However, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu described the reports as “absolutely false”.

Many Intelligence reports are produced daily with the aim to inform decision makers and naturally not all of them are considered to be true. According to the Intelligence leaks, the plans for the Hamas attack were considered beyond the group’s capabilities, the New York Times reported. Notwithstanding, the Hamas attack was considered a major Intelligence failure at first. Information was provided, even though it’s not clear if it was delivered to the higher level of decision making.

The massive retaliation

After the attacks, Israel conducted a massive retaliation over the Gaza Strip, asking for civilians to constantly move from one part of the territory to another. Even with the warnings, however, the amount of civilian deaths for this conflict is significantly high. The death toll of Palestinians, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, is over 40,000. Furthermore, the air campaign that Israel is conducting over Gaza has destroyed or caused damage to civilian buildings and infrastructure in general. People living in Gaza are therefore being displaced, as well as suffering all aspects of a war. Lacking food, water and medicines. In his recent speech at the UN General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Hamas steals food and medicine from its own population.

Because of the amount of civilian deaths, as well as for the indiscriminate air raids from Israel against Gazan territory, South Africa has accused Israel of genocide in the International Supreme Court (ICJ). Thirteen other countries have expressed their intention to join South Africa in the accusation. For an act to be considered genocide under International Law, it is necessary to prove intention. That is, the aim of the act must be to intentionally destroy in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, according to the United Nations Genocide Convention. Therefore, South Africa claims “acts and omissions” by Israel “are genocidal in character because they are intended to bring about the destruction of a substantial part of the Palestinian national, racial and ethnic group”.

Israel denies the accusations and claims that it is Hamas that wishes to perpetrate genocide. “It would murder all of us if it could”, said the Israeli Prime Minister, BBC reported. The aim of the Israeli government is to destroy Hamas or at least cripple the organization in a way that would impede another attack like the one of October 7th.

Conflict with Hezbollah

Even though Israel didn’t seem too eager for a two-front war at the beginning of this last conflict against Hamas, the support that one group has shown to another brought Israeli attention to both sides of the frontier.

Hezbollah is a paramilitary Xiit group that was first trained by Iran in the context of the Lebanese civil war in 1982. Over the years, the group has grown, as well as its internal influence. Hezbollah occupies 30 of the 128 seats in the Lebanese Parliament, therefore being the biggest party in the country. Furthermore, Hezbollah’s militia is bigger than the Lebanese Army itself. It is a longstanding issue of the Lebanese state: it does not hold the monopoly of the use of force. The Lebanese Army exists more on paper than in reality. Hence, the recent decapitation attack of Israel against the Hezbollah leadership does not necessarily mean that the group will be disorganized. Or, even if disorganized, that they would cease their activity against Israel and in support of Hamas.

On September 17th, thousands of pagers and, on the following day, walkie-talks exploded simultaneously in Lebanon. The devices are known to be used by Hezbollah members to avoid detection. As a result of the explosion, 37 people were killed, including children. More than 3,000 people were injured. Even though Israel has not recognized the attack, CNN has reported that it was a Mossad/IDF operation. Beyond the death of members, the explosions significantly affect Hezbollah capacity to communicate among its members.

On September 27th, Israel struck a residential area of Beirut aiming to kill Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah secretary general. His death has been confirmed by the group, as well as his daughter as one of the casualties of the hit. However, even with his death confirmed, alongside with other leadership members in the last days, a new leadership can arise and take the place of the latter. Indeed, that would be the more credible scenario with Nasrallah’s cousin, Hashim Safi Al Din, taking his place.

The strikes against Beirut mean that hostilities are no longer limited to the frontier (southern region), which is an escalation. Also, Hezbollah made its first attempt to target Tel Aviv, capital city of Israel, with a ballistic missile. This, in addition to Netanyahu’s speech at the UN General Assembly, increases the concerns for an all-out war in the Middle East. The Israeli Prime Minister declared multiple times in his speech that Iran is the enemy, the one funding the killings of Israelis and Americans. He stressed this as an attempt to further sensibilize its longlasting US partner that faces an electoral year in which the war in Gaza has become a hot topic. Furthermore, he said: “As long as Hezbollah chooses the path of war, Israel has no choice and Israel has every right to remove this threat”.

The strikes over Lebanon have so far caused more than 700 deaths, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, in addition to 250,000 people being displaced by the bombings. In sum, an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel looks more like a matter of when, than if. Moreover, an invasion of Lebanon, such as happened in 2006, is looking nearer now. In this scenario, it is valid to question if such a move would trigger an escalation-ladder that could lead to a general war in the Middle East. A scenario that Joe Biden, the US president, has declared it must be avoided.

Escalation risk

The death of Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah since the 90’s, is a severe blow to the group and to Iran in extent, giving the close ties they share. It is not clear how Iran and Hezbollah will respond to this action, but they certainly will. This escalation happens while Israel faces several internal challenges, such as the corruption accusations against Netanyahu and protests from Orthodox Jews that are against mandatory conscription for the whole population. In addition, Hamas is still holding hostages and their Israeli families have constantly accused the government of not doing enough to retrieve them.

For many, a progressively escalation benefits Netanyahu, considering the rally around the flag effect that wars usually cause over leaders. In general, even unpopular leaders increase their support from the population during conflicts, but this effect usually is not long lasting and the war is almost one year long. Furthermore, wars in Israel tend to take prime ministers down after the conflit, as it was the case with Golda Meir, who fell after the Yom Kippur war.

However, Knowing that he will fall soon, either for the accusations he faces in justice or for the results of the war, Netanyahu may seize the opportunity to do what others wouldn’t. That is, Israel wants to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah and he sees now as the time to do it. Thus, he would be a leader less fearing from the public eye and more prone to risk taking.

Escalation is already happening, the question now is to what extent are Israel and Hezbollah willing to go. Furthermore, to what extent will the United States and Iran get involved. Referring to the killing of Nasrallah, the Iranian ambassador in Lebanon declared on X: “There is no doubt that this reprehensible crime and reckless behavior represent a serious escalation that changes the rules of the game, and that its perpetrator will be punished and disciplined appropriately”. Even though Iran may not be prone to war with Israel now, they will certainly help Hezbollah in the fight and, if the group collapses, a more direct intervention could be triggered. On the other side, Israel may be attempting to force the US hand by escalating. Knowing the country would come in aid to its main ally in the Middle East should things get more complicated.

Clearly, these are all conjectures so far. But they come from the shared history of these countries. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 and in 2006. Iran has been training and funding Hezbollah since then and the US has been on Israel’s side throughout all cited conflicts. One thing that is even more clear is that the ceasefire that the US government was announcing as close is each day further away.