Romania, a member of NATO and the European Union, is preparing for another decisive moment in its political history. With new elections scheduled for May 2025, following allegations of irregularities and possible Russian interference in the previous election, the country is facing a scenario of polarisation and uncertainty. One of the highlights of these new elections is the overwhelming growth of the ultra-left, led by the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor – Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party, whose leader, George Simion, appears to be the favourite in the polls with his nationalist, anti-immigration and critical of the European Union speeches. Polls carried out by the Verifield institute show that Simion would win 35 per cent of the vote in the first round, taking advantage of popular discontent following the annulment of the previous elections due to suspicions of Russian interference.
The original elections, held at the end of 2024, have been suspended by the Romanian Supreme Court, with an indication to restart the electoral processes in full. The Romanian Supreme Court’s verdict came after the country’s National Security Council revealed reports alleging that Romania suffered Russian-funded attacks during the electoral process. The second round, which was to pit pro-Russia Călin Georgescu (far right) against centre-right candidate Elena Lasconi (pro-European Union), was cancelled after President Klaus Iohannis set a new schedule, despite Moscow’s denials of possible interference. Georgescu, who was planning to break off relations with Ukraine and Subscribe to DeepL Pro to translate larger documents. Visit www.DeepL.com/pro for more information. reiterated that Bucharest had no issues with NATO defence spending, personifies the geopolitical tensions that permeate the electoral process in Romania.
The collapse of the Romanian electoral process
After winning the first round of the 2024 elections, Georgescu was disqualified by Romania’s Constitutional Court over suspicions of Russian interference in his campaign, including manipulation on social media. In addition, the politician faced criminal charges such as incitement against the constitutional order and support for extremist groups, with a possible sentence of up to 25 years in prison.
After Georgescu’s disqualification, fake news began to circulate about the European Union. Posts by far-right politicians falsely claimed that the EU had banned certain candidates from running in the elections. A supposed increase in participation in protests against Georgescu’s removal was also misleadingly publicised, with videos of massive demonstrations – however, EuroVerify found that the images were actually of anti-corruption protests taking place in Serbia. As for the accusations that the EU had directly interfered in the candidate’s disqualification, the European Commission said that it had taken the necessary measures to ensure the combat of foreign interference in the Romanian electoral process, but which at no time prevented any politician from running for office. The Commission also opened legal proceedings against TikTok, a social network widely used during Georgescu’s campaign, on suspicion of violating the Digital Services Act, especially its failure to prevent or mitigate threats to the integrity of the November 2024 elections.
The geopolitical battle
George Simion, one of the central figures in the electoral crisis, has established himself as the favourite by capitalising on discontent after the results of the first round were annulled. His ultranationalist project includes sympathy for the US “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement and he endorses fierce criticism of the European Union and military aid to Ukraine, worrying Western allies who fear a possible distancing of Romania from EU policies. In addition to Simion, Crin Antonescu, representative of a pro-European coalition made up of the PSD, PNL and UDMR, is showing himself to be one of the relevant candidates, along with Elena Lasconi of the USR party, who would face the second round before the cancellation. Both are behind Simion in the polls, with Antonescu registering around 20 per cent of voting intentions.
Romania’s electoral system, which is proportional and fragmented, reflects the divisions over the country’s role on the international stage. While parties such as Partidul Național Liberal – National Liberal Party (PNL) and Uniunea Salvați România – Union to Save Romania (USR) advocate single lists to elect MPs (with a view to governing in favour of the European Union), the far-right party Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor – Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) prefers single-member districts, mainly as a strategy to expand its nationalist caucus. These internal disputes over the technical rules reflect a “competition” between European integration and sovereignty, with the Ukrainian War in the background.
The main parties have turned geopolitics into electoral platforms. The PSD, traditionally pro-Russia, has moderated its discourse after EU sanctions, but still resists raising the military spending target, an agenda widely defended by the PNL. The USR uses corruption scandals in defence contracts to attack both, while the AUR proposes a referendum on remaining in NATO. The polls show that 58 per cent of voters will decide their vote based on these positions.
Ultranationalism as a threat to European integration
The advance of these ultra-nationalist discourses, spearheaded by figures such as George Simion and Viktor Orbán in Hungary, who have also criticised the European Union’s stance on the protection of minorities, can be seen as a tendency for countries with these leaders to distance themselves from European integrationist policies. Although these speeches echo popular discontent with instability and corruption, it is worth questioning how this rhetoric of ‘national sovereignty’ will affect Romania’s strategic integration into the European Union. By openly questioning and criticising the EU’s actions, the AUR instrumentalises nationalist sentiments in a way that ignores concrete solutions to structural problems and the maintenance of social welfare. This kind of stance jeopardises consolidated diplomatic and economic relations and puts at risk the democratic advances made in recent decades. The narrative of rupture, disguised as the defence of national interests, tends to fuel an environment instability that benefits those who profit from disinformation and regional fragmentation.
The resignation of Klaus Iohannis, announced in February, crowns months of political instability aggravated by the cancellation of the elections and irregularities in the process. Although he claims “institutional reasons”, the context shows deep wear and tear: pressurised by popular protests and investigations into corruption in the PNL, Iohannis leaves a power vacuum that threatens to accelerate the rise of the AUR, which is already leading the polls with its Eurosceptic speeches. The crisis is the result of the fragility of the Romanian political system, torn between European integration and the growing call for ultra-nationalist solutions. Its outcome could redefine a fraction of the geopolitical balance in a region where Russia and the EU are quietly vying for influence.
Another sphere is the way in which geopolitics has been used as an electoral tool, turning debates into ideological rallies. The war in Ukraine is an issue that requires analysis and well-structured state policies, but it ends up being reduced to slogans by ultranationalist candidates who blindly deny the reality of the conflicts and capitalise on popular fear and discontent. Opportunistic exploitation of these issues distorts public perception of the real impacts of the conflict and international alliances, creating false dichotomies between national sovereignty and European integration. The simplistic logic ignores the interdependent global scenario and weakens democratic debates by diverting the focus from the urgent need for institutional reforms and integration policies to meet social demands.
Integration and isolation at stake
Given the complexity of the scenario, the 2025 Romanian elections will be key moment in defining the direction of a nation that is caught between maintaining integration and the populist appeal of a sovereignty moulded on extremist discourses. The rise of the AUR, Simion’s party, and other ultra-nationalist leaders is seen as a crisis of confidence in representative democracy and traditional institutions. However, one wonders to what extent this discredit can justify proposals that undermine democratic values and delegitimise international bodies and partnerships, as in the case of the EU.
Romania, facing a crucial electoral decision, has the chance at the ballot box to redefine its role in the European political balance. Although popular discontent is legitimate, the response must not come from weakening institutions or individual interests, but from gradual reforms in electoral processes and public debate. There is still a way to avoid perpetuating the current crisis and to ensure that political choices allow democracy to endure in the country.
References
https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2024/12/06/justica-romenia-anula-eleicoes-presidenciais.ghtml
