The U.S. military mobilization near Venezuela reflects a renewed effort to pressure left-wing governments in the region. The response of the Venezuelan armed forces highlights rising tensions and the risk of an imminent conflict.
Since mid-January 2025, U.S. military forces have begun operations in the Caribbean region with a clear target: Venezuelan territory. The mission, named “Southern Spear,” aims to combat drug-trafficking networks in the region and prevent these groups’ commercial and logistical operations in Venezuela, as the White House accuses the Venezuelan government of commanding and supporting drug-trafficking organizations to maintain the Chavista administration. However, the military mobilization and projection of force in the Caribbean suggest a larger-scale operation — a possible military invasion of the country and a threat to Venezuela’s state sovereignty.
U.S. foreign policy toward Venezuela has been a point of tension since the government of Hugo Chávez — predecessor to the country’s current president, Nicolás Maduro — during which the U.S. repeatedly attempted to interfere with and overthrow the socialist government established by Chávez. The most significant expression of White House interference was the attempted coup d’état on April 11, 2002, intended to remove Chávez from power; he was widely supported by the population and the Venezuelan military, ultimately returning to office 48 hours later. This failed attempt has since remained a source of tension, accompanied by tariffs and economic blockades. Thus, does the current U.S. military presence and mobilization toward Venezuela represent a revised attempt at intervention?
During the Cold War, U.S. foreign policy aimed to guarantee stability and maintain its influence in Latin America to prevent Soviet expansion in the region, treating it as an area under U.S. influence and subject to political interventions when deemed necessary. As such, from the mid-1950s onward, U.S. imperial presence in Latin America manifested through support for coups and military dictatorships under the pretext of national security — a narrative used both for Latin America and for U.S. domestic interests — resulting in violence, political persecution, and external interference in these nations’ sovereignty.
Within this context, U.S.–Venezuelan relations reflect this narrative: the idea that Latin America belongs to the U.S. sphere of influence and must align with its political and economic interests. Therefore, since the failed coup attempt in 2002, U.S. foreign policy has sought to destabilize and remove the Chavista regime through interference attempts, military mobilization, and official government statements.
Given this brief historical overview of relations between the two countries, it is worth reflecting on the White House’s true interest in the recent military mobilizations in the Caribbean. It is also relevant to ask whether this U.S. military activity represents a security operation against drug trafficking or a new attempt at political intervention.
U.S. Interests in Military Operations in the Region
The recent presence of U.S. armed forces in the Caribbean represents one of the largest military mobilizations in the region since the 1989 invasion of Panama. Moreover, renewed activity at the U.S. military base in Puerto Rico — a U.S. unincorporated territory under its political influence — with aircraft, fighter jets, ships, and other force projections reflects a large-scale military preparation possibly intended for purposes beyond anti–drug-trafficking operations.
Since January, these operations have begun approaching and firing on Venezuelan vessels in international waters under the justification of security and drug interdiction. However, such attacks in international waters constitute violations of Public International Law, lacking legal or political legitimacy. Nonetheless, the main target of these operations still appears to be the Venezuelan government.
In November 2025, the U.S. government added Venezuelan organizations to the list of terrorist groups, making them the initial targets and justification for these military operations. The U.S. accuses the Cartel de los Soles of being a drug-trafficking and terrorist organization commanded by Nicolás Maduro. This classification — valid under U.S. domestic law — authorizes the armed forces to strike vessels and groups linked to the cartel and to Maduro under the pretext of security. The Maduro government, in turn, accuses the U.S. of attempting to destabilize and overthrow his administration under the guise of the war on drugs.
Despite official accusations about Maduro’s involvement with drug trafficking, no clear confirmation exists of his direct participation. Thus, the “Southern Spear” operation may also represent an attempt to destabilize Maduro’s government and pursue a new political intervention. Moreover, Venezuela holds some of the largest oil reserves in the world, making it geopolitically crucial for the international political economy of the 21st century. Maintaining political and commercial relations with a U.S.-aligned government in Venezuela would thus be strategically beneficial, considering the oil sector’s key role in U.S. interests.
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to María Corina Machado — leader of the Venezuelan opposition — and her dedication of the prize to Donald Trump suggest possible political alignment with the U.S. government. Also in November — the same month the Cartel de los Soles was classified as a terrorist drug-trafficking group supposedly led by Maduro — Machado released a “Manifesto of Freedom,” referring to a political reconstruction of the country after Maduro, signalling that the Chavista era may be nearing its end.
Thus, there is a fine line between the U.S. military mobilization being used for anti–drug-trafficking efforts near Venezuela and the construction of a security narrative as a pretext for a new political intervention. Venezuela’s response focuses on mobilizing its armed forces, population, and allied states to prepare militarily should the country face a potential U.S. invasion under the justification of security and the war on drugs.
From a military standpoint, the U.S. possesses the necessary force projection and regional positioning for a ground invasion of Venezuela. At the end of November 2025, Donald Trump confirmed that a land attack was near, intensifying regional tensions and reinforcing the rhetoric of potential intervention. Although diplomatically, Trump’s discourse and recent operations may also be intended to pressure Maduro into resignation, the strong military presence suggests preparation for a possible invasion.
Therefore, monitoring the political and military developments in the region is crucial to safeguarding Latin America’s political autonomy, which has historically faced U.S. interventions since the 1950s aimed at maintaining influence and regional control. The recent military dynamics, political repercussions, and historical record of foreign interference indicate geopolitical interests that go beyond the rhetoric of the war on drugs.
