Scheduled for November 5th, the American Presidential Election is being followed all over the world due to its international implications. Not only in the domestic arena of the United States, but in Ukraine and Gaza, the results of the run for the White House can impact millions of lifes. Notwithstanding, it is not an analyst’s job to make predictions, therefore this piece only aims to be an overview of the elections so far.
TRUMP v. UNITED STATES
The Supreme Court ruling held that the president is entitled to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for certain official acts within the president’s “conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority,” a presumption of immunity from criminal prosecution for all other official acts, and no criminal immunity for unofficial acts, explains the American Cornerstone Institute (2024). Despite not accepting Trump’s argument that the president had total immunity, the decision was undoubtedly a win for Donald Trump in one of his many legal battles. The Supreme Court ruling represented a significant blow to the Special Prosecutor Jack Smith’s indictment against President Donald Trump.
Smith argued that Trump incited his supporters during the events that led to the January 6th, but being still president at the time Trump was rendered immune from prosecution, as long as his actions were under “conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority”. After the decision, Smith revised his indictment and a new trial date has yet to be set, but probably won’t take place until the presidential elections.
Trump’s assassination attempt
I’d like to think that God thinks that I’m going to straighten out our country,” said Donald Trump during a recent Fox News interview. On July 13th, during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump suffered an assassination attempt. The case is being investigated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) as domestic terrorism. The shooter, identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, was neutralized at the scene. Aside from an injury in Trump’s (left or right) ear, a crowd member was killed and two others were injured by the shooter.
Photo: Associated Press
Senator Hawley (Republican) has accused the security detail of Donald Trump of being ill prepared. According to him, a whistleblower has indicated that despite threats against Donald Trump’s life, instead of beefing up security for the former president, members of Homeland Security (not accustomed to doing this kind of work) were designated to participate in the security detail of this rally. “So think about this: The former president of the US … is sent out on stage, most of the people there are not trained, they’re not qualified. They only got a webinar training and even that didn’t work,” he scoffed (New York Post, 2024). Previously, senator Hawley has accused the FBI of targeting catholics, especially traditionalist catholics in investigations.
About the current investigation on Trump’s assassination attempt, FBI findings so far indicate no motives nor foreign links to the case.
Biden drops out
The beginning of the race for the highest office in the United States was marked by the questioning of the ability of the current president, Joe Biden, to remain in his position for 4 more years, if elected. Not only his advanced age, he is 81 years old, but some awkward moments – to say the least – shadowed doubt over his capacity to hold the title, as Americans like to put it, of “leader of the free world”. In addition, surviving an assassination attempt increased the image of Donald Trump as a strong man, in opposition to a weaker Biden, in comparison to his younger version as senator and vice president of Obama. In this scenario, the party and donors pressured the president to resign the campaign and so he did on July 21rst. In doing so, he gave space to the younger and experienced, Kamala Harris.
Photo: Getty Images
Actually, this was the original plan, since Biden had previously said he wouldn’t run for reelection. However, Harris’ performance as VP was not so full of highlights. She was in charge of dealing with the border, and on July 25th House Republicans (with six Democrats) passed a resolution condemning her for failing to “secure the border” (The Economist, 2024). Therefore, she faces the challenge of overcoming the current government’s perceived mistakes and weakness, since she is part of it. According to a recent survey by the Redfield and Wilton Strategies (2024), a majority of voters (53%) rate illegal immigration as ‘extremely important’ in determining their vote, with a further 22% describing the issue as ‘moderately important’, making the issue the achilles heel of the Democrat Party.
Even so, it is clear that the change had positive effects for the Democrats. Harris boosted up donations by receiving 81 million dollars in only 24 hours after announcing her campaign. In addition, she addresses the anxiety over Biden’s age and ability, being now the younger candidate at 59 years old. Furthermore, she would be the first female president of American history, even though her campaign is not framed on that, as Hillary Clinton’s was.
Gaza’s repercussions
Kamala Harris’ position as Vice President of a government that is currently supporting Israel during the war in Gaza has rendered her bad repercussions during the run for presidency. She was booed during a rally in Detroit. While protesters pro Palestine shouted that she couldn’t hide from the genocide happening in Gaza, she answered: “You know what, if you want Donald Trump to win, then say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking”.
Photo: Reproduction
The last longing support from the US to Israel is a bipartisan consensus. However, Americans do not seem to share this consensus. According to a GALLUP poll on public opinion conducted in may, only 36% of Americans approve of Israeli military action in Gaza. When considering the political preferences of Americans, the numbers are even more significant. Data collected by GALLUP shows a difference of approval of Israeli military action in Gaza over the conflict. Among Democrats, the number goes from 36% of approval in November 2023 (still close to the terrorist attacks from Hamas in October 7th that led to the Israeli incursion in Gaza) to 18% of approval in March 2024 and increases a little achieving 23% in June this year. Among Independents, the approval rate goes from 47% in November to 34% in June, reaching the lowest in March with 29%.
These are the voters that interest Kamala, naturally. In a country where voting is not mandatory, if a citizen does not feel compelled to vote for a candidate or a policy that they believe in – or to vote against a candidate or a policy that they disagree with, they might not show up. Therefore, convincing voters that they are worthwhile is a challenge both candidates have to face. Since the support among Republicans for Israeli military actions in Gaza is significantly higher (almost continuously above 70%), this subject is less impactful for Donald Trump. He still has to win over some Independents to achieve victory, nonetheless.
Fontes
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cxx2d25l634o
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/sep/02/trump-god-surviving-assassination-attempt
https://news.gallup.com/poll/642695/majority-disapprove-israeli-action-gaza.aspx
https://news.gallup.com/poll/646955/disapproval-israeli-action-gaza-eases-slightly.aspx
