External Interests and Sovereignty: Lula’s Reelection and Latin American Geopolitics
By Djalma de Souza da Silva Filho 03/11/2026 9 min
Latin America is a region historically marked by political, economic, and institutional violence, where the development of democracy and sovereignty has emerged from grassroots struggles. However, this historical violence inflicted upon the region has left marks that remain evident in its current political landscape. In this sense, the expression “the open veins of Latin America,” introduced by Eduardo Galeano, symbolizes this historical process of exploitation and violence in the political formation of Latin American territory. These marks remain open and represent the region’s ongoing exploitation within the International System (Galeano, 1983). The regional context, permeated by the legacies of interventionism, power regimes, and external interests that perpetuate this open wound, is also reflected in the recent presidential electoral processes across the region, which, since 2023, have been characterized by the resurgence of the Blue Wave and political alignment with the interests of the United States. The outcome of the Brazilian elections, with the reelection of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, therefore represents an important element of analysis in understanding the reshaping of the region’s geopolitical map and the debate surrounding sovereignty and external interests.
The analysis of Latin America’s territorial and economic formation cannot be separated from the colonial violence that shaped the region’s political construction. Thus, Latin American underdevelopment does not represent merely a delayed stage in the process of economic development; rather, it is directly related to the subordinate manner in which the region has been incorporated into the International System. In this sense, Latin America was not merely conquered by its invaders but was historically governed to serve the external interests of dominant countries, whether economic or political. Therefore, it can be understood that the forms of domination and exploitation have changed, but certain structures of power and dependency remain at the core of the debate surrounding the pursuit of autonomy and the strengthening of sovereignty.
The return of the Blue Wave in the region, characterized by a renewed political shift toward right-wing governments, began with the election of Javier Milei as president of Argentina in 2023 and was strengthened by the rise of right-wing governments in presidential elections across Latin America in 2025 and 2026. This trend represents a new alignment of foreign policy with Washington’s interests in the region. In this context, discussions concerning terrorism and narco-terrorism in the region as international problems requiring external assistance to combat them, the management of natural resources by foreign capital, and the reduction of the State’s role in the country’s economic development and growth were at the center of political debates. Meanwhile, the opposing political spectrum converged around the defense of a more autonomous and multilateral foreign policy aimed at strengthening national sovereignty.
In Brazil, the presidential contest also highlighted the polarization between distinct political projects regarding the country’s integration into the international arena and the direction of its economic and social policies. On the one hand, the project represented by then-candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, who was defeated in the elections, presented political alignment with the United States, reduced state intervention in the economy, the strengthening of a public security agenda, and the expansion of foreign capital participation in strategic sectors, including the exploitation of natural resources, as its central priorities. On the other hand, the project represented by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was reelected, was based on the defense of national sovereignty, the expansion of public and social policies, and the promotion of a foreign policy guided by multilateralism and the diversification of international relations. In this regard, considering that the regional geopolitical configuration at that time was characterized by a predominance of governments identified with the political right — seven countries, compared to four left-wing governments — the continuation of Lula’s administration becomes relevant to the political balance of South America. This is because Brazil, due to its economic and territorial dimensions and its diplomatic influence, constitutes a central actor in shaping regional political relations.
Nevertheless, the continuation of a left-wing government in Brazil’s Presidency does not, in itself, represent a reversal of the trend toward the rise of the right in Latin America, nor does it signify an effective retreat of the so-called Blue Wave in the Brazilian political landscape. This is because the outcome of the presidential contest was not reflected in an equivalent manner in the composition of the Legislative Branch, whose configuration came to include significant representation from parties and parliamentarians associated with the political right. The performance of the Liberal Party (PL) stands out in this regard, as it expanded its presence in the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate, reaching 36% of the seats in the Senate. Thus, although Lula’s reelection represents the continuation of a political project that prioritizes national sovereignty and multilateralism, the composition of the National Congress demonstrates the continued presence and institutional strength of the right in Brazilian politics. Consequently, a situation emerges in which a left-oriented federal government coexists with a Legislative Branch in which right-wing political forces hold a significant predominance. This scenario poses challenges to governability and the implementation of the government’s agenda, particularly regarding the conduct of national policies and the definition of the direction of Brazilian foreign policy.
Furthermore, it is important to emphasize that the structural dependency of Latin America and Brazil is reproduced not only in the external context but also within the country’s internal structures. In this regard, there is an internal articulation between the ruling bloc and external interests, which at times favors authoritarian political regimes and seeks to restrict the social advancement of certain segments of the population — through cuts to welfare and social inclusion policies — in order to preserve the economic privileges associated with their social status (Albuquerque; Meneses, 2017). This element partially explains the movement toward the rise of right-wing parliamentarians in the country. Moreover, considering the history of interventionism, military rule, the recent 2016 coup d’état, and the new attempted coup in January 2023, Brazilian democracy exhibits weaknesses that require attention, since the actions of external interests and attempts at foreign interference, as well as strong corporate activism, have already contributed to the weakening of national sovereignty.
From a geopolitical perspective, prior to the outcome of the Brazilian elections, the country represented an important political indicator for confirming the shift in the ideological axis across Latin America. This is because, throughout 2026, the outcomes of the presidential contests in Colombia and Peru reinforced the prospect of the return of the Blue Wave in the region. One of the international strategies adopted by Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign in Brazil was the presence of Argentine President Javier Milei at the PL convention in São Paulo, which aimed to strengthen the idea of a joint regional movement seeking the election of right-wing presidents.
Regarding the tariff policies imposed by Donald Trump on the Brazilian economy throughout 2025 and 2026, the participation of former federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro stands out. He is the son of former president Jair Messias Bolsonaro, who was convicted of attempting a coup d’état, and the brother of then-candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, who was not elected. Eduardo Bolsonaro acted alongside U.S. foreign policy, supporting the tariff measures. According to him, his political lobbying in the United States in favor of imposing trade tariffs on Brazil represented a necessary “sacrifice” of the Brazilian economy in the name of the political freedom he supposedly defended. In this context, the freedom to which he referred concerned the amnesty of those imprisoned for their involvement in the attempted coup d’état of January 8, 2023, as well as the defense of greater economic freedom. However, the political lobbying of a Brazilian parliamentarian in support of the imposition of trade tariffs intended to weaken the economic conditions of the very country he institutionally represents, by virtue of the office he holds, constitutes a significant contradiction within the Bolsonarist movement in Brazil and once again exposes how Latin America’s veins remain open and pulsating.
During the presidential contest in Brazil, alongside the narratives surrounding external interests and the strengthening of national sovereignty, there were also external actors seeking to provide advantages to one of the candidates. In this regard, it was possible to identify coordination between Big Tech companies — primarily represented by Meta — and support from the United States for Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy. Furthermore, during the two months preceding the first round of the presidential elections, specifically at the end of August, the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (ABIN) released a report to the Presidency of the Republic and the country’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), confirming the critical level of concern regarding the risk of U.S. external interference in the Brazilian electoral process. These elements became evident to the Brazilian electorate itself, which sought alternatives to counter attempts at interference aimed at giving an advantage to the candidate supported by Washington.
In this sense, among other factors, it is possible to attribute Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s electoral victory in the presidential election, securing his fourth term, to the network-based mobilization carried out by the population on social media, as well as to the large-scale mobilization in the streets. Thus, the formation of a popular “army” against the far-right movement in the country could be observed. Lula’s reelection therefore represented a symbol of the struggle against interventionism and U.S. interests in Brazil and throughout Latin America, positioning the region’s geopolitical configuration as an important regional actor in the defense of sovereignty.
Against this backdrop, the flight of defeated candidate Flávio Bolsonaro to the United States just 48 hours after the election results, combined with episodes of political coordination with external actors and the previously discussed attempts at interference, reinforces the persistence of disputes surrounding the sovereignty and self-determination of Latin American countries. In this sense, Galeano’s open veins remain an important metaphor for understanding a region whose history of exploitation and domination did not end with political independence or democratization, but continues to manifest itself in contemporary disputes over control of resources, institutional autonomy, and the right to define its own political projects. Thus, although the outcome of the Brazilian elections represents the continuation of a political project guided by the defense of national sovereignty, the historical marks of interventionism and dependency remain present, demonstrating that the struggle for Latin American autonomy remains unresolved.
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